The axiom “When you’re a hammer, everything looks like a nail,” is a cliche. But it’s a cliche because it accurately describes so many situations. All of us end up seeing the world through a familiar lens and it can be difficult to change that mindset. Conventional wisdom is comforting and it can help make navigating an uncertain world a bit easier.
But conventional wisdom can be a trap. Especially in a rapidly-changing industry like Hollywood where the normal rules aren’t just being broken, they are being rewritten in sometimes very counter-intuitive ways.
David Poland is one of the wisest theatrical movie industry experts I know. I don’t always agree with him. But I never feel as if he is taking the easy way out of any argument. It’s why I consider his newsletter The Hot Button a must-read. The theatrical movie business is not my expertise, but I feel smarter every time I read a piece by him.
Last night, he posted a piece that talked about the passing of Ted Turner and used that as a frame to discuss Netflix and streaming and what he sees as a lack of vision in the theatrical movie business. I wanted to highlight a few passages and I am doing this was the caveat that I am not criticizing David’s expertise or even what he sees as the relative truth in this situation. But I am breaking down this piece because I think he continues to have a consistent point of view on these topics and he articulates it in a much clearer fashion than you’ll read elsewhere.
After discussing Turner, he writes about Netflix and the rise of streaming and frames the history this way:
But there was another big problem. The international mail was not as consistent as US mail, so expanding the red envelopes to the rest of the world was also a capped reality. There were many blockades to servicing the rest of the world - aside from the US - but there was and is only one delivery system that could work for Netflix for the distribution of movies and tv shows…. streaming. Countries could block the internet and slow internet service was the norm, even in the U.S. But there was a future available. And Netflix took it. Which was brilliant. I don’t really believe that this was always Hastings’ vision… but believe what you like.
I’ve told this story before, but I interviewed Hastings in the late 1990s, back when Netflix was still little more than a solitary warehouse full of DVDs in the Bay Area. And towards the end of the interview, he discussed the future he saw. Where consumers wouldn’t need to rent a disc, they could watch the title on their computer. I don’t know that he saw how it was going to play out. But at a time when dial-up Internet was the norm in the U.S., he could see some sort of a streaming future.
Poland goes on to write about the international streaming business and while he has the framework of the story correct, I’d argue that he misses some of the international story:
It would be ridiculous to say that Hastings & Co just lucked into the international business that is still what really separates Netflix from every other streaming company to this day. And it was ridiculous that all the legacy companies that got into streaming in late 2019 and 2020 seemed to miss the clear importance of the international market to make streaming successful. At that point, Netflix’s sub count was only 58% international and 42% US & Canada. But their businesses were not shaped like Netflix, even then and even now.
Instead of focusing on international as an absolute necessity, the legacy companies focused on the mythology of having to spend like Netflix to compete with Netflix. This would be a mistake than cost scores of billions of dollars, if not more than a hundred billion all combined (fully encouraged by Wall Street know-nothings who still pretend to be insightful on TV and elsewhere).
While the legacy media companies didn’t ignore the international market, unlike Netflix, their strategy was constrained by Wall Street expectations and the need to keep the share prices as high as possible.
Disney spent a lot of money on international efforts, including a sizeable investment on live Cricket in Asia. But most of those markets were just beginning to grow, and the average revenue per user (ARPU) was so low compared to that in North America that investors punished the company for making the efforts. Disney ultimately walked away from Cricket and some other large deals. Opting to produce a steady but smaller stream of scripted originals across the globe.
The only other U.S. media company to rival Netflix’s global ambitions is Prime Video and their business model is unique to them. But in India, even Prime Video has struggled to build an audience in a market where free is the norm. In fact, Amazon has launched a free streaming service in an effort to grow their business. A service which includes a deep library of locally produced programming. And Netflix has struggled in general to gain a toehold in India due to aggressive local and regional streamers.
And that localization is the thing that hampered most American companies when they attempted to grow globally. Yes, familiar American titles are popular. But the differentiator for success is having a healthy collection of locally-produced content. Most American media companies were slow to build out that business. And even slower to license local content to build their catalogs.
As for the mythology of having to spend like Netflix to compete with Netflix, that is a common belief in Hollywood. The idea is so widely accepted in the entertainment business that it is accepted as conventional wisdom. The legacy media companies destroyed themselves attempting to become Netflix.
The truth is that while Netflix’s success might have pushed those companies into streaming before they were ready, those legacy companies realized they had to move aggressively into streaming or they risked becoming the Hollywood equivalent of the big music labels. Those labels were slow to move into digital and it took them more than a decade to begin to make money with streaming.
The problem with most of the American media companies was execution and an inability to sell that international vision to investors and journalists. For instance, Warner Bros. Discovery has a massive international business, especially in Europe. And yet, because journalists don’t understand the business, it’s barely mentioned in all the various hot takes about WBD.
And then there is the matter of theatrical windows and on this issue Poland is in the “make the window expand until the industry screams” camp.
Adam Aron is the manager of the biggest chain in the world right now, AMC. And he has been innovative in certain ways. But he has also been an unmitigated failure as an industry visionary.
Why is he seemingly incapable of saying something like, "The ecosystem of the theatrical business works best with a healthy, consistent window, first to PVOD and then to SVOD (Netflix. HBO Max, etc). AMC will not play movies for more than 7 days that do not agree to a 60-day window to PVOD and 120 days to SVOD."
If you want to take the softball road, make it 45 days to PVOD and 90 days to SVOD. But Aron will not do even that.
AMC has taken that stand with Netflix and his desire to see longer theatrical windows than Netflix is comfortable with has hampered Netflix’s efforts to build flexibility in the theatrical window. But I suspect Aron looked at the business surrounding the initial theatrical release of the musical version of KPop Demon Hunters and realized there is a business there for AMC. And in a world where there are fewer major theatrical releases, shorter theatrical runs might fill some excess screens.
But regardless, a 120-day window before a movie hits streaming is a fever dream. Sure, it might work for some Disney films and other high-profile (and very popular) releases. But holding a film on PVOD for 60 days is frankly a bit nuts. There isn’t much transparency in PVOD revenue, but major streamers such as Netflix will look at what they can make on PVOD versus the worth of the film going to streaming and will most times choose the latter. And yes, there is a value for streamers. But it’s an issue that few people in the industry really understand.
A lot of this discussion revolves around “We must do this to save the theatrical business.” And to be brutally honest, saving the theatrical business is not Netflix’s job. It’s not a movie studio in the classic sense of the word and many of the problems in the theatrical business come from traditional studios deciding to cut productions as a way to save money. And then they use the money taken from the content spend budget - along with savings wrung out from massive job cuts - to increase executive salaries and spend billions on stock buybacks.
When it comes to spending, it’s a zero-sum game. All of that money spent on executive bonuses and boosting the stock price comes directly out of the operational budgets of the big media companies.
Netflix didn’t trick big media companies into spending money they didn’t have. Instead, Netflix spent its money more effectively and were smart enough to borrow money when interest rates were low. They gambled that by taking that low-cost money and spending on content, they could take advantage of the legacy media executives who too focused on their own job prospects and the company’s share prices.
David has frequently asked why Netflix’s share prices have remained so strong and that is the reason. Wall Street trusts its executives to be bold and yet careful. Netflix is seen as a company that has the best handle on the streaming business. And in this environment, perceived wisdom is rewarded.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this, I would recommend you read The Hot Button on a regular basis. But just because I admire his work (and wouldn’t mind arguing with him over dinner one day), I also feel as if he best exemplifies a conventional wisdom about Hollywood that continues to damage the future of the business.
Netflix is not the problem. As David notes, a lack of vision and a risk-adverse executive class has damaged Hollywood more than any streamer could.
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Odds & Sods
A fifth episode of the true crime docuseries The Yogurt Shop Murders premieres on Friday, May 22nd on HBO. Here is a look at the trailer. And here is the official logline: “Episode five, "The End of Wondering," chronicles the months after the documentary series The Yogurt Shop Murders debuted in August 2025 when the Austin Police Department (APD) suddenly convenes a press conference to announce a break in the 34-year-old case only three weeks after the show concluded. In the conference, APD cold case detective Dan Jackson reveals the behind-the-scenes details of the painstaking work that he and other investigators used in tracking down the killer of four teenage girls in Austin, Texas in 1991. When the murderer's identity is uncovered and verified through new DNA technology, it reveals the unexpected connection to a serial killer whose crimes stretched across numerous states in the '90s. The resolution offers some relief to the family members while at the same time allowing the falsely accused men from the original investigation an opportunity to finally seek exoneration.”
Season three of Tires will premiere Thursday, August 13th on Netflix.
BET today announced the return of the BET Black + Iconic Soirée, set to take place on Saturday, May 23, 2026, at MGM National Harbor in Oxon, Maryland. The annual event honors and celebrates the intersectionality of the Black and LGBTQ+ communities, recognizing cultural leaders, and fostering collective impact. Laverne Cox will host this year’s Soirée, with comedian and content creator Lavelle Dontae hosting the red carpet. Grammy-nominated singer and songwriter Tweet will perform two songs during the evening.
The film Voicemails For Isabelle premieres Friday, June 19th, on Netflix. It stars Zoey Deutch, Nick Robinson, Harry Shum Jr., Lukas Gage, Ciara Bravo, Nick Offerman, Megan Danso, Gil Bellows, Toby Sandeman, and Spencer Lord. And this is the official logline: "Jill copes with her sister's death by leaving her voicemails chronicling her chaotic life in San Francisco. When the number is unknowingly reassigned, an elusive Austin real estate agent begins receiving the hilariously confessional messages."
The stand-up comedy special Hannah Berner: None of My Business will premiere Friday, June 5th on Hulu in the U.S. and Disney+ internationally. Here is the brief official logline: "Hannah Berner delivers her most vulnerable material yet - questioning her future, exposing her unorthodox career path, dishing dating secrets and admitting she's 'part-time hot' in this sensational sophomore special."
Fox has renewed the series Murder In A Small Town for a third season. If you haven’t watched the show, this is your chance to catch up on a great lean-back mystery series.
A new season of Belle Collective premieres Friday, June 5th on OWN. Here is the official logline: “When new episodes begin, tensions are rising and loyalties are tested like never before in the Colllective. Kerri’s decision to collaborate with Latrice on an influencer event sparks questions from Marie about where her allegiance stands, especially as longtime friendships begin to feel the strain. Elsewhere, Lateshia and Glen face a pivotal moment in their marriage as Glen quietly explores his legal options, while Tambra finds herself blindsided when a surprise guest turns a casual lunch into an emotional standoff. Also, Marie steps back into the dating scene with the Belles eager to play matchmaker, Selena races against the clock to pull together her upcoming wedding, and Kerri is left shaken after a pointed confrontation with her mother-in-law forces her to reassess her priorities. Meanwhile, Latrice and Cliff find themselves at odds over the possibility of having a baby, revealing deeper cracks beneath the foundation.”
The suspense drama The Listeners will premiere Friday, June 12th on Starz. Here is the official logline: “Claire hears a sound that neither her husband nor her daughter can hear. This seemingly innocuous hum triggers migraines, nosebleeds and insomnia, with no obvious source or medical explanation. After weeks of suffering, the strain starts to fracture her relationships with family, friends and colleagues. When she discovers that a student of hers can also hear the hum, the two strike up an unlikely and intimate friendship that gradually transforms into something more extreme, with devastating consequences.”
The new game show The Nation’s Dumbest will premiere on Wednesday, July 15th. Hosted by Jack Whitehall, this is the official logline: “Each episode channels celebrities' inner school spirit as they head back to summer school, facing a mix of brain-teasing tasks, fast-paced physical challenges, and long-buried classroom knowledge. Each week, the ‘smartest’ celebrity graduates, narrowing the field until a high-stakes final exam determines who will be left standing with the distinction no one wants—the title of The Nation's Dumbest. Enrolled in this season's all-star class are television personality Hilaria Baldwin, actress and model Carmen Electra, actor Anthony Michael Hall, actor Jon Heder, musician and actor Chase Hudson, rapper and actor Ice-T, singer-songwriter Elle King, former NFL quarterback Matt Leinart, television personality and physician Dr. Drew Pinsky, stunt performer and comedian Steve-O, singer and performer JoJo Siwa, and entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang.
Crew has walked off the California set of CoComelon: The Melon Patch over multiple labor disputes that arose from "deteriorating working conditions" on the production. Apparently, one of the issues was “too much CoCo, not enough Melon.”
The third and final season of Survival Of The Thickest premieres Thursday, July 2nd, on Netflix.
The latest Harlan Coben series I Will Find You premieres Thursday, June 18th, on Netflix. It stars Sam Worthington, Britt Lower, Milo Ventimiglia, Logan Browning, Erin Richards, Chi McBride and Jonathan Tucker and here is the brief logline: “An innocent father serving life for the murder of his own son receives evidence that his child may still be alive—and must break out of prison to find out the truth.”
International streamer MHz Choice has acquired exclusive U.S. rights to multiple Sky original series from NBCUniversal Global TV Distribution. The first to launch will be the German series Das Boot, which will debut all episodes of season one on Tuesday, July 7th on MHz. The American premiere of Season two will follow on Tuesday, August 4th, with two episodes, then streaming all eight episodes weekly. Premiere dates for Seasons 3 and 4, which have also never been seen in the U.S. before, will be announced at a later date.
More Proof They’re Not Like Us
What’s Coming Tonight And Tomorrow
THURSDAY, MAY 7TH:
Hope Valley: 1874 Season One Finale (Hallmark)
Jersey Shore Family Vacation Season Premiere (MTV)
Legends Series Premiere (Netflix)
M.I.A. Series Premiere (Peacock)
My Dearest Assassin (Netflix)
9-1-1 Season Nine Finale (ABC)
9-1-1 Nashville Season Finale (ABC)
The Chestnut Man: Hide And Seek Season Premiere (Netflix)
The Dating App Nightmare (LMN)
The Terror: Devil In Silver (AMC+/Shudder)
USA 94: Brazil's Return To Glory (Netflix)
We Are Jeni (Investigation Discovery)
FRIDAY, MAY 8TH:
Amadeus Series Premiere (Starz)
Broad Trip (The Roku Channel)
Deadliest Catch Season Premiere (Discovery)
Give Me Back My Baby (Tubi)
Lukkhe Series Premiere (Prime Video)
My Royal Nemesis Series Premiere (Netflix)
No Place To Be Single (Prime Video)
Remarkably Bright Creatures (Netflix)
RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars Season Premiere (Paramount+)
Thank You, Next (Netflix)
The Secrets Of The Matriarchs (LMN)
Unconditional Series Premiere (Apple TV)